Post by account_disabled on Dec 30, 2023 4:09:53 GMT
HIGHLIGHTS The global economic slowdown in 2019 was more severe than many think tanks think. as predicted, resulting in the IMF and the central banks of each country Including Thailand, it has gradually lowered its economic growth forecasts at the global and national levels continuously from the end of 2018 to the present. The global economic outlook in 2020 is expected to continue to grow at a slower rate following the late cycle and the effects of the trade war that will affect the entire year if compared to 2019 when the US-China gradually adjusted up. Periodic retaliatory tariffs on imported goods As a result, the impact began to be severe in the second half of 2019, with key countries such as the US and Germany becoming more at risk of technical recession. In summary, 2020 is still a year where the global and Thai economies have a low rate of expansion and inflation as the economic cycle enters a slowdown period. As for the trade war If this continues, it will increase the risk of a deeper, faster and more severe recession. From 2019, when the global economy slowed down more than anyone expected, in 2020 the world still has many risks to contend with. All of which are a result of what happened in the past year.
Both the trade war that shows no signs of ending And it may escalate into a currency war and a technology war. Brexit uncertainty, while there is still a tipping point as the US election nears, even in 2020 there is a low risk of a recession. But these factors are still things that the world must keep an eye on. Economy 2019: cyclical slowdown But it was aggravated by the trade war. Confidence is low In fact, the view of most economists has already assessed the global economic outlook in 2019 that there is a chance of a slowdown. The Telegram Number Data main reason is entering the late cycle of growth (Late Cycle), which started when the global GDP growth rate peaked in 2017 at 3.8%, after which the expansion began to slow down. Remaining 3.6% in 2018 (information from the IMF), which is also considered normal for the economic situation to slow down. After nearly 10 years of continuous high growth since the US financial crisis in 2007-2009, on average, one economic cycle of growth and decline takes approximately 7 years. CONTENT-1-29 However, it must be acknowledged that the global economic slowdown in 2019 was more severe than the forecasts of many research houses, causing the IMF and central banks of each country to Including Thailand,
it has gradually lowered its economic growth forecasts at the global and national levels continuously from the end of 2018 to the present. As recently as October, the IMF predicted that the global GDP growth rate in 2019 would be only 3%. At the national level, The US is forecast at 2.4%, China 6.1%, Eurozone 1.2%, Japan 0.9%. CONTENT-2-28 Complicating pressure is the trade war between the United States and China. which has started since 2018, which must be admitted again that 'Severe than expected' as well, from the beginning when both countries raised tariffs on imported goods of 50 billion US dollars, but the value of the tariffs on imported goods went back and forth. Especially from the United States. The tax collection on imports from China has increased to almost 500 billion US dollars. Such factors are considered to be exerting great pressure on international trade. This reflects that the export value of countries that rely on exports dropped significantly in 2019, such as China, South Korea, and Thailand. The value of merchandise exports decreased from 2018, resulting in a sharp decline in activity in the merchandise production sector.
Both the trade war that shows no signs of ending And it may escalate into a currency war and a technology war. Brexit uncertainty, while there is still a tipping point as the US election nears, even in 2020 there is a low risk of a recession. But these factors are still things that the world must keep an eye on. Economy 2019: cyclical slowdown But it was aggravated by the trade war. Confidence is low In fact, the view of most economists has already assessed the global economic outlook in 2019 that there is a chance of a slowdown. The Telegram Number Data main reason is entering the late cycle of growth (Late Cycle), which started when the global GDP growth rate peaked in 2017 at 3.8%, after which the expansion began to slow down. Remaining 3.6% in 2018 (information from the IMF), which is also considered normal for the economic situation to slow down. After nearly 10 years of continuous high growth since the US financial crisis in 2007-2009, on average, one economic cycle of growth and decline takes approximately 7 years. CONTENT-1-29 However, it must be acknowledged that the global economic slowdown in 2019 was more severe than the forecasts of many research houses, causing the IMF and central banks of each country to Including Thailand,
it has gradually lowered its economic growth forecasts at the global and national levels continuously from the end of 2018 to the present. As recently as October, the IMF predicted that the global GDP growth rate in 2019 would be only 3%. At the national level, The US is forecast at 2.4%, China 6.1%, Eurozone 1.2%, Japan 0.9%. CONTENT-2-28 Complicating pressure is the trade war between the United States and China. which has started since 2018, which must be admitted again that 'Severe than expected' as well, from the beginning when both countries raised tariffs on imported goods of 50 billion US dollars, but the value of the tariffs on imported goods went back and forth. Especially from the United States. The tax collection on imports from China has increased to almost 500 billion US dollars. Such factors are considered to be exerting great pressure on international trade. This reflects that the export value of countries that rely on exports dropped significantly in 2019, such as China, South Korea, and Thailand. The value of merchandise exports decreased from 2018, resulting in a sharp decline in activity in the merchandise production sector.